Sunday, July 26, 2020

Power Root Berhad (Annual Report 2019 & Q4 2020)

Company Background
  • Pwroot is an instant drinks manufacturer with different brands to target different customers. 
    • Ah Huat instant coffee is to target the Chinese market
    • Alicafe and Alitea with tongkak ali to target the Malay man Market (with Halal Certificate)
    • Pearl instant coffee with Kacip Fatimah (Kacip Fatimah is rich in phytoestrogen and isoflavones, that may ease menopausal symptoms) to target the Malay women market (with Halal Certificate)
    • Instant chocolate drink and Instant Ah Huat Tea Tarik to target the non-coffee drinkers. 
  • 57% of Pwroot shares are hold by its 4 major shareholders and 3 of them are founders of Pwroot. 
  • Worth to note that 95% of Pwroot shares are in the hands of long term shareholders (95% of Pwroot shares are owned by 5% of its shareholders. Based on closing price of RM2.10, the value owned by these group of shareholders are worth at least RM200k per shareholder.
  • Earnings in 2010 vs 2020:
    • In 2010, Pwroot revenue was RM153 million, net profit was RM10 million, share price was RM0.45
    • In 2020, Pwroot revenue was RM386 million, net profit was RM51 million, share price was RM1.92
    • Its revenue grew 153%, net profit grew 410% while share price grew 326% over the 10 years. 
  • Domestic vs Export earnings in 2010 vs 2020:
    • In 2010, Pwroot sales from Malaysia market (RM133 million) and Export market (RM20 million)
    • In 2020, Pwroot sales from Malaysia market (RM177 million) and Export market (RM208 million).
    • Sales from Malaysia market grew 33% while sales from Export market grew 940% over the 10 years (Can see that Pwroot focus more on overseas growth) 
  • Pwroot has 2 manufacturing plant in Johor (one factory for instant powder beverage and another one for canned drinks)
  • Pwroot set up distribution companies in China, Indonesia and United Arab Emirates. UAE being their main market for export sales. 


Financial Background
  • Gross profit margin of Pwroot is around 55%. 
  • Net profit margin of Pwroot is around 10% - 13%.
  • Reasons for a drop in net profit to RM9 million in 2018:
    • Unfavorable sales mix (high raw material cost, low GP margin)
    • Writing down of inventories (RM2.8 million)
    • Impairment loss on PPE (RM2.3 million) mainly resulting from writing down of the ground works done on our leased property for manufacturing plant in the UAE 
    • Foreign exchange losses (RM5.3 million).
  • Reasons for a drop in sales in 2019:
    • Spend less in advertisement and promotion (A&P) hence lower sales (RM40 million in 2019 as compared to RM74 million in 2018 spend in A&P). 
    • Saudi Arabian government required Saudi companies to replace foreign workers with Saudi nationals through a quota policy, and the effect of expatriate levies which led to a reduction in the consumer expatriate population who were major consumers of our products (Export sales dropped from RM204 million in 2018 to RM173 million in 2019)
  • Pwroot is generous in paying out its profit as dividend (80% - 100% of dividend payout ratio however company policy on dividend is 50% payout ratio)
  • Net cash companies with strong operating cash flow and free cash flow. 


  • Pwroot spend approximately 20% of its sales on advertisement and promotion for brand awareness. 
  • Low quality of trade receivables:
    • 19% of its trade receivables do not paid on time in 2018
    • 22% of its trade receivables do not paid on time in 2019
  • According to Ambank Investment report, Pwroot cash conversion cycle was around 83 days. 
      • Inventory days: 60 days (technically it took Pwroot 60 days before they sold their products)
      • Receivable days: 111 days (technically it took Pwroot 111 days before they manage to collect the money back from their debtors)
      • Payable days: 88 days (technically it took Pwroot 88 days before they pay their suppliers)


    Strength
    • Manage to target all races (Muslim and Chinese in particular) with different branding. 
    • Growth in overseas sales surpass the sales in Malaysia with UAE being its main contributor since 2019.


    Weakness


    Commodities that affects Pwroot Gross Profit Margin:
      • Sugar price are relatively low which is favorable for its gross profit margin
      • Arabica coffee beans price are on the rise which is unfavorable for Pwroot. 
      • Milk prices are on the high side of consolidation. 



    Futures Prospects: 
    • Expansion of new factory at its current Johor facility which would double the production capacity. Capital expenditure estimated to be RM35 million. Expected to complete in 2022.
    • New distributor appointed in Egypt to tap into Egypt market. 
    • Focus on online sales
    • Expand product range such as cocoa and tea to increase the value chain.


    Peers to Peers Comparison
    • Both Oldtown and Super Group were privatized by PE firm JDW Asia in 2017 and 2016 at a PE of 24 for Oldtown and 30 for Super.


    Valuation of Pwroot @ RM2.10
    • Average PE of Pwroot is 18, at current share price of RM2.10, Pwroot is trading at a PE of 17 which is below its average. 
    • With dividend of 12.5 sen per share, Pwroot dividend yield is 5.95% which is 3 times higher than current FD rate. 
    • If Pwroot is to spend RM35 million to expand its production, in the short term, we might see higher depreciation and operating cost which will lower its profit in the short term. 
    • 65 millions warrants expire in 2023 remain un-exercise which is 15% of its existing number of shares. Expect to see further dilution in EPS. 


    Sunday, July 5, 2020

    Hong Leong Industries Berhad (AR2019)

    Company Background
    • 74.57% of shares owned by Hong Leong Manufacturing Group Sdn Bhd / Hong Leong Group while remaining 15% of shares are hold by fund house. Only 5% of shares are in the hand of retailers. 
    • Product & Services:
      • Consumer Products (Revenue: RM2,309 million, 85%):
        • Manufacture and distribution of Yamaha motorcycle
        • Manufacture and distribution of Ceramic Tiles with the brand Guocera
        • Distribution of Yamaha outboard motor products. 

      • Industrial Products (Revenue: RM418 million, 15%):
        • Manufacture and distribution of fibre cement board with the brand Primaboard and concrete roofing with the brand Hume Roofing.
    • 90% of revenue derived from Malaysia and 10% derived from overseas..  
    • HLIND owned 24% of shares in Yamaha Motor Vietnam Co Ltd which contributes RM90 millions of profit to HLIND in 2019 (That is around 18% of contribution to its PBT). Remaining 76% of the shares are owned by Vietnam Forest Corporation and Yamaha Motor Corporation. 


    Market Outlook for Motorcycle Industry
    • In 2019 demand for motorcycle industry in Malaysia increased by 16% due to Zero GST period in 2018 while in Vietnam the demand for motorcycle dropped by 0.3%. Nonetheless, motorcycle remain as the main transportation in Vietnam. 
    • Yamaha is the market leader in Malaysia motorcycle industry dominates 40% of Malaysia motorbike market followed by Honda (20%). 
    • However in Vietnam, Yamaha motorcycle merely dominates 20% of Vietnam motorcycle industry while Honda dominates 70% of motorcycle. According to UOB analyst report, Yamaha Vietnam expect to see a 5 % shrink in sales per annum from year 2019 - 2021. 
    • For more information on Malaysia Motorcycle market outlook and 2019 growth: https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/2020/02/05/malaysia-motorcycles/

    Financial Background
    • Revenue increased from RM2 billion in 2014 to RM2.7 billion in 2019, up 35%. 
    • Net profit increased from RM 207 million in 2014 to RM409 million in 2019, up 97%. 
    • Gross profit margin is around 18% - 20% while net profit margin is around 10% - 15%. 
    • Share of profit from associate are mainly affected by the sales of Yamaha motorbike in Vietnam. 
    • Dividend payout ratio is around 50% of its EPS. 
    • HLIND has strong operating cash flow and its free cash flow is always higher than its net profit. 

    • Motorcycle and marine outboard contributes 68% of its revenue followed by ceramic tiles, 16% and finally fibre cement and roofing, 16%.

    • Margin for consumer products improved consistency for 3 years to 17% in 2019
    • Industrial products remain a loss making segment for HLIND in 2019. 

    • Only 1% of its trade receivables past due the 90 days period. 


    Strength
    • Strong operating cash flow and balance sheet. 
    • Yamaha Motorbike is the market leader in Malaysia and ranked 2nd in Vietnam.  
    • Generous dividend payout. 
    • Motorcycle demand in 2019 is as high as 2013


    Weakness
    • Industrial product segment is a loss making segment which drag down HLIND profitability. 
    • Motorbike industry can be saturated however we may see operation efficiency whereby revenue merely increased by 36% while net profit increased by 96% over the 6 years. 

    Q3 2020
    • Revenue -12%
    • Net profit -26%
    • Share of profit from associate -76%
    • MCO implemented on 18 March 2020 which means 13% of the quarter are under movement control order which is identical to 12% of revenue drop. 
    • Balance sheet continue to improve where cash on hand increased from RM 1.04 billion in 2019 to RM 1.2 billion in Q3 2020. 


    Future Prospect


    Valuation of HLIND at RM8
    • HLIND is not a growth stock but a company with stable earnings, stable cash flow and generous dividend payout. 
    • The only way to make profit from HLIND is buy it at reasonable price and enjoy its consistent dividend payout. 
    • Due to the covid 19 impact, its annual EPS is 80 sen. A 50% payout at RM8 will have a dividend yield of 5%. 
    • Once the covid is over, its annual EPS would normalized to RM1. a 50% payout at RM8 will have a dividend yield of 6.2%. 
    • Share price has dropped 20% from RM10 before covid to account for a 20% impact on its financial which is fair and square for now. 




    Power Root Berhad (Annual Report 2019 & Q4 2020)

    Company Background Pwroot is an instant drinks manufacturer with different brands to target different customers.  Ah Huat instan...